Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District

62%

GOP

38%Dem

Lean R

▲ D+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+1.280% of simulations: R+6.3 to D+3.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+1.3

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+13.8

National Environment

current political climate

D+12.5

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+1.2

Forecasted margin

R+1.2

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Global Strategy Group Bob HarvieDemocratic	Oct 8, 2026	Even	LV
Public Opinion Strategies NRCCRepublican	Sep 14, 2026	R+9	RV
GQR House Majority PACDemocratic	Aug 23, 2026	R+1	LV
Global Strategy Group Bob HarvieDemocratic	Aug 9, 2026	R+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 38%

GOP 62%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Lean R Sabato Lean R

PVI

D+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.

Candidates

Democrat Bob Harvie

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick (inc.)