Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
70%
GOP
30%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +4.3·80% of simulations: R +17.3 to D +8.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +1.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +11.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
R +4.3
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Mar 22, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 11, 2025 | Even | 585 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 30%
GOP 70%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (D+1).
- Candidates
- Robert Harvie (D) Brian Fitzpatrick (R) (inc.)