Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
64%
GOP
36%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +2.2·80% of simulations: R +10.1 to D +5.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +1.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +13.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +2.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | Aug 23, 2026 | R +1 | 400 | lv |
| Global Strategy Group | Aug 9, 2026 | R +4 | 500 | lv |
| Global Strategy Group | Mar 22, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 36%
GOP 64%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Robert Harvie
Republican Brian Fitzpatrick (inc.)