Pennsylvania Governor
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R+0.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+15.8
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+5.7
Forecasted margin
D+28.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 21, 2026 | D+23 | LV |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Oct 18, 2026 | D+21 | RV |
| Bravo Group PennLive | Oct 11, 2026 | D+30 | RV |
| Quinnipiac University | Oct 5, 2026 | D+25 | LV |
| Z to A Research Rust Belt RisingDemocratic | Oct 1, 2026 | D+19 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Josh Shapiro (inc.)
Republican Stacy Garrity