Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +22.6·80% of simulations: D +9.1 to D +36.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +15.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +22.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+17 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Madeleine Dean (inc.)
Republican Aurora Stuski