Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+15.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.9
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+24.4
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+17 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Madeleine Dean (inc.)
Republican Aurora Stuski