Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +22.6·80% of simulations: D +9.0 to D +36.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +17.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +22.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 97%
GOP 3%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+19 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Summer Lee (inc.)
Republican James Hayes