2024 Senate Forecast
71%
29%Dem
34 seats contested.
Solid D 15
Likely D 0
Lean D 3
Tilt D 2
Tossup 0
Tilt R 1
Lean R 1
Likely R 2
Solid R 10
20 Dem-favored · 0 Tossup · 14 GOP-favored
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 28 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 23 out of 34.
28 D seats not up for election
29Vermont100% I
30Hawaii100% D
31California100% D
32Delaware100% D
33New York100% D
34Massachusetts99% D
35Maine98% I
36Connecticut97% D
37New Jersey96% D
38Rhode Island96% D
39Washington96% D
40Maryland95% D
41New Mexico92% D
42Minnesota90% D
43Virginia88% D
44Pennsylvania71% D
45Arizona66% D
46Michigan65% D
47Nevada63% D
48Wisconsin60% D
49Ohio55% R
50Texas74% R
Seat 51 · majority threshold
51Florida78% R
52Montana79% R
53Nebraska85% R
54Missouri91% R
55Indiana95% R
56Nebraska99% R
57Mississippi99% R
58North Dakota100% R
59Tennessee100% R
60Utah100% R
61West Virginia100% R
62Wyoming100% R
Control Odds Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the Senate, through Nov 4, 2024.
Dem 29%
GOP 71%
Competitive Races
7 of 7
| Race | Forecast | Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno | R +1.0 Tilt R | 45%55% | R +3.6 GOP won | 2.6 | D +2.6 | ✓ |
WI Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde | D +2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D +0.8 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
NV Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown | D +3.0 Tilt D | 63%37% | D +1.6 Dem won | 1.4 | D +1.4 | ✓ |
MI Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers | D +3.3 Lean D | 65%35% | D +0.3 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
AZ Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake | D +3.9 Lean D | 66%34% | D +2.4 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
PA Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave Mccormick | D +4.6 Lean D | 71%29% | R +0.2 GOP won | 4.8 | D +4.8 | ✗ |
TX Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz | R +5.5 Lean R | 26%74% | R +8.5 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
All Races
34 of 34
| Race | Forecast | Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AZ Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake | D +3.9 Lean D | 66%34% | D +2.4 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
CA Adam Schiff vs Steve Garvey | D +22.8 Solid D | 100%0% | D +17.7 Dem won | 5.1 | D +5.1 | ✓ |
CT Chris Murphy vs Matthew Corey | D +17.1 Solid D | 97%3% | D +18.9 Dem won | 1.0 | R +1.8 | ✓ |
DE Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen | D +19.1 Solid D | 100%0% | D +17.1 Dem won | 2.0 | D +2.0 | ✓ |
FL Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs Rick Scott | R +6.8 Likely R | 22%78% | R +12.8 GOP won | 6.0 | D +6.0 | ✓ |
HI Mazie Hirono vs Bob Mcdermott | D +31.0 Solid D | 100%0% | D +32.7 Dem won | 1.7 | R +1.7 | ✓ |
IN Valerie Mccray vs Jim Banks | R +14.0 Solid R | 5%95% | R +19.9 GOP won | 5.9 | D +5.9 | ✓ |
MA Elizabeth Warren vs John Deaton | D +24.5 Solid D | 99%1% | D +19.8 Dem won | 4.7 | D +4.7 | ✓ |
MD Angela Alsobrooks vs Larry Hogan | D +12.4 Solid D | 95%5% | D +11.8 Dem won | 0.6 | D +0.6 | ✓ |
ME Angus King (I, caucuses D) vs Demi Kouzounas | D +21.1 Solid D | 98%2% | D +17.4 Independent won | 3.7 | D +3.7 | ✓ |
MI Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers | D +3.3 Lean D | 65%35% | D +0.3 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
MN Amy Klobuchar vs Royce White | D +10.8 Solid D | 90%10% | D +15.7 Dem won | 4.9 | R +4.9 | ✓ |
MO Lucas Kunce vs Josh Hawley | R +10.8 Solid R | 9%91% | R +13.7 GOP won | 2.9 | D +2.9 | ✓ |
MS Ty Pinkins vs Roger Wicker | R +17.5 Solid R | 1%99% | R +25.6 GOP won | 8.1 | D +8.1 | ✓ |
MT Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy | R +6.6 Likely R | 21%79% | R +7.1 GOP won | 0.5 | D +0.5 | ✓ |
ND Katrina Christiansen vs Kevin Cramer | R +23.8 Solid R | 0%100% | R +32.9 GOP won | 9.1 | D +9.1 | ✓ |
NE Dan Osborn (I) vs Deb Fischer | R +9.3 Solid R | 15%85% | R +6.7 GOP won | 2.6 | R +2.6 | ✓ |
NE Preston Love Jr. vs Pete Ricketts | R +19.3 Solid R | 1%99% | R +25.2 GOP won | 5.9 | D +5.9 | ✓ |
NJ Andy Kim vs Curtis Bashaw | D +15.2 Solid D | 96%4% | D +9.6 Dem won | 5.6 | D +5.6 | ✓ |
NM Martin Heinrich vs Nella Domenici | D +13.1 Solid D | 92%8% | D +10.1 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
NV Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown | D +3.0 Tilt D | 63%37% | D +1.6 Dem won | 1.4 | D +1.4 | ✓ |
NY Kirsten Gillibrand vs Mike Sapraicone | D +21.3 Solid D | 100%0% | D +18.3 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
OH Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno | R +1.0 Tilt R | 45%55% | R +3.6 GOP won | 2.6 | D +2.6 | ✓ |
PA Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave Mccormick | D +4.6 Lean D | 71%29% | R +0.2 GOP won | 4.8 | D +4.8 | ✗ |
RI Sheldon Whitehouse vs Patricia Morgan | D +19.2 Solid D | 96%4% | D +20.0 Dem won | 0.8 | R +0.8 | ✓ |
TN Gloria Johnson vs Marsha Blackburn | R +22.6 Solid R | 0%100% | R +29.6 GOP won | 7.0 | D +7.0 | ✓ |
TX Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz | R +5.5 Lean R | 26%74% | R +8.5 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
UT Caroline Gleich vs John Curtis | R +27.5 Solid R | 0%100% | R +30.8 GOP won | 3.3 | D +3.3 | ✓ |
VA Tim Kaine vs Hung Cao | D +9.6 Solid D | 88%12% | D +8.9 Dem won | 0.7 | D +0.7 | ✓ |
VT Bernie Sanders (I, caucuses D) vs Gerald Malloy | D +39.2 Solid D | 100%0% | D +31.1 Independent won | 8.1 | D +8.1 | ✓ |
WA Maria Cantwell vs Raul Garcia | D +15.7 Solid D | 96%4% | D +18.5 Dem won | 2.8 | R +2.8 | ✓ |
WI Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde | D +2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D +0.8 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
WV Glenn Elliott vs Jim Justice | R +34.7 Solid R | 0%100% | R +41.0 GOP won | 6.3 | D +6.3 | ✓ |
WY Scott Morrow vs John Barrasso | R +45.1 Solid R | 0%100% | R +51.0 GOP won | 5.9 | D +5.9 | ✓ |