2024 Senate Forecast
71%
29%Dem
34 seats contested.
Solid D 15
Likely D 0
Lean D 3
Tilt D 2
Tossup 0
Tilt R 1
Lean R 1
Likely R 2
Solid R 10
20 Dem-favored · 0 Tossup · 14 GOP-favored
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 28 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 23 out of 34.
28 D seats not up for election
29Vermont100% I
30Hawaii100% D
31California100% D
32Delaware100% D
33New York100% D
34Massachusetts99% D
35Maine98% I
36Connecticut97% D
37New Jersey96% D
38Rhode Island96% D
39Washington96% D
40Maryland95% D
41New Mexico92% D
42Minnesota90% D
43Virginia88% D
44Pennsylvania71% D
45Arizona66% D
46Michigan65% D
47Nevada63% D
48Wisconsin60% D
49Ohio55% R
50Texas74% R
← GOP Holds | Dem Flips →
51 for majority
51Florida78% R
52Montana79% R
53Nebraska85% R
54Missouri91% R
55Indiana95% R
56Nebraska99% R
57Mississippi99% R
58North Dakota100% R
59Tennessee100% R
60Utah100% R
61West Virginia100% R
62Wyoming100% R
Sorted from most likely D to most likely R. The highlighted race is the tipping point. Win that race, win the Senate.
Control Odds Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the Senate, through Nov 4, 2024
Dem 29%
GOP 71%
Competitive Races
7 of 7
| Race | Forecast | Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno | R +1.0 Tilt R | 45%55% | R +3.6 GOP won | 2.6 | D +2.6 | ✓ |
WI Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde | D +2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D +0.8 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
NV Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown | D +3.0 Tilt D | 63%37% | D +1.6 Dem won | 1.4 | D +1.4 | ✓ |
MI Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers | D +3.3 Lean D | 65%35% | D +0.3 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
AZ Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake | D +3.9 Lean D | 66%34% | D +2.4 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
PA Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave Mccormick | D +4.6 Lean D | 71%29% | R +0.2 GOP won | 4.8 | D +4.8 | ✗ |
TX Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz | R +5.5 Lean R | 26%74% | R +8.5 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
All Races
34 of 34
| Race | Forecast | Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AZ Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake | D +3.9 Lean D | 66%34% | D +2.4 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
CA Adam Schiff vs Steve Garvey | D +22.8 Solid D | 100%0% | D +17.7 Dem won | 5.1 | D +5.1 | ✓ |
CT Chris Murphy vs Matthew Corey | D +17.1 Solid D | 97%3% | D +18.9 Dem won | 1.0 | R +1.8 | ✓ |
DE Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Eric Hansen | D +19.1 Solid D | 100%0% | D +17.1 Dem won | 2.0 | D +2.0 | ✓ |
FL Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs Rick Scott | R +6.8 Likely R | 22%78% | R +12.8 GOP won | 6.0 | D +6.0 | ✓ |
HI Mazie Hirono vs Bob Mcdermott | D +31.0 Solid D | 100%0% | D +32.7 Dem won | 1.7 | R +1.7 | ✓ |
IN Valerie Mccray vs Jim Banks | R +14.0 Solid R | 5%95% | R +19.9 GOP won | 5.9 | D +5.9 | ✓ |
MA Elizabeth Warren vs John Deaton | D +24.5 Solid D | 99%1% | D +19.8 Dem won | 4.7 | D +4.7 | ✓ |
MD Angela Alsobrooks vs Larry Hogan | D +12.4 Solid D | 95%5% | D +11.8 Dem won | 0.6 | D +0.6 | ✓ |
ME Angus King (I, caucuses D) vs Demi Kouzounas | D +21.1 Solid D | 98%2% | D +17.4 Independent won | 3.7 | D +3.7 | ✓ |
MI Elissa Slotkin vs Mike Rogers | D +3.3 Lean D | 65%35% | D +0.3 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
MN Amy Klobuchar vs Royce White | D +10.8 Solid D | 90%10% | D +15.7 Dem won | 4.9 | R +4.9 | ✓ |
MO Lucas Kunce vs Josh Hawley | R +10.8 Solid R | 9%91% | R +13.7 GOP won | 2.9 | D +2.9 | ✓ |
MS Ty Pinkins vs Roger Wicker | R +17.5 Solid R | 1%99% | R +25.6 GOP won | 8.1 | D +8.1 | ✓ |
MT Jon Tester vs Tim Sheehy | R +6.6 Likely R | 21%79% | R +7.1 GOP won | 0.5 | D +0.5 | ✓ |
ND Katrina Christiansen vs Kevin Cramer | R +23.8 Solid R | 0%100% | R +32.9 GOP won | 9.1 | D +9.1 | ✓ |
NE Dan Osborn (I) vs Deb Fischer | R +9.3 Solid R | 15%85% | R +6.7 GOP won | 2.6 | R +2.6 | ✓ |
NE Preston Love Jr. vs Pete Ricketts | R +19.3 Solid R | 1%99% | R +25.2 GOP won | 5.9 | D +5.9 | ✓ |
NJ Andy Kim vs Curtis Bashaw | D +15.2 Solid D | 96%4% | D +9.6 Dem won | 5.6 | D +5.6 | ✓ |
NM Martin Heinrich vs Nella Domenici | D +13.1 Solid D | 92%8% | D +10.1 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
NV Jacky Rosen vs Sam Brown | D +3.0 Tilt D | 63%37% | D +1.6 Dem won | 1.4 | D +1.4 | ✓ |
NY Kirsten Gillibrand vs Mike Sapraicone | D +21.3 Solid D | 100%0% | D +18.3 Dem won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
OH Sherrod Brown vs Bernie Moreno | R +1.0 Tilt R | 45%55% | R +3.6 GOP won | 2.6 | D +2.6 | ✓ |
PA Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave Mccormick | D +4.6 Lean D | 71%29% | R +0.2 GOP won | 4.8 | D +4.8 | ✗ |
RI Sheldon Whitehouse vs Patricia Morgan | D +19.2 Solid D | 96%4% | D +20.0 Dem won | 0.8 | R +0.8 | ✓ |
TN Gloria Johnson vs Marsha Blackburn | R +22.6 Solid R | 0%100% | R +29.6 GOP won | 7.0 | D +7.0 | ✓ |
TX Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz | R +5.5 Lean R | 26%74% | R +8.5 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
UT Caroline Gleich vs John Curtis | R +27.5 Solid R | 0%100% | R +30.8 GOP won | 3.3 | D +3.3 | ✓ |
VA Tim Kaine vs Hung Cao | D +9.6 Solid D | 88%12% | D +8.9 Dem won | 0.7 | D +0.7 | ✓ |
VT Bernie Sanders (I, caucuses D) vs Gerald Malloy | D +39.2 Solid D | 100%0% | D +31.1 Independent won | 8.1 | D +8.1 | ✓ |
WA Maria Cantwell vs Raul Garcia | D +15.7 Solid D | 96%4% | D +18.5 Dem won | 2.8 | R +2.8 | ✓ |
WI Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde | D +2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D +0.8 Dem won | 1.5 | D +1.5 | ✓ |
WV Glenn Elliott vs Jim Justice | R +34.7 Solid R | 0%100% | R +41.0 GOP won | 6.3 | D +6.3 | ✓ |
WY Scott Morrow vs John Barrasso | R +45.1 Solid R | 0%100% | R +51.0 GOP won | 5.9 | D +5.9 | ✓ |