Arkansas Senate
98%
GOP
2%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +23.0·80% of simulations: GOP +36.1 to GOP +10.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-27.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-0.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+4.9 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +23.0
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | 2026-02-09 | GOP +23 | 550 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 2%
R 98%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+31).
- Candidates
- Hallie Shoffner (D) Tom Cotton (R) (inc.)