Arizona's 6th Congressional District
64%
Dem
36%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +4.2·80% of simulations: GOP +12.1 to Dem +20.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-0.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-4.9 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.7 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +4.2
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-10-15 | Dem +1 | 581 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 64%
R 36%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (R+1).
- Candidates
- Joanna Mendoza (D) Juan Ciscomani (R) (inc.)