Florida's 27th Congressional District
75%
GOP
25%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +8.3·80% of simulations: GOP +24.3 to Dem +7.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-10.1 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.5 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +8.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaplan Strategies | 2025-07-27 | GOP +14 | 804 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 25%
R 75%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Richard Lamondin (D) Maria Elvira Salazar (R) (inc.)