Iowa Senate

75%

GOP

25%Dem

Lean R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: GOP +7.5·80% of simulations: GOP +22.3 to Dem +7.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

-11.0 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

-4.0 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+7.1 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

+0.4 pp

Forecasted margin

GOP +7.5

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Echelon Insights	2026-04-09	Dem +2	377	lv
Echelon Insights	2026-04-09	Dem +1	377	lv
GBAO	2026-03-16	GOP +4	1,200	lv
GBAO	2026-03-16	GOP +3	1,200	lv
Change Research	2026-01-11	GOP +4	1,108	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 25%

R 75%

Context