Kansas Senate
88%
GOP
12%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +13.5·80% of simulations: GOP +28.3 to Dem +1.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-14.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+6.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +13.5
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | 2026-01-28 | GOP +10 | 1,013 | lv |
| Tavern Research | 2026-01-28 | GOP +8 | 1,013 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 12%
R 88%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+16).
- Candidates
- Sandy Sidel Neumann (D) Roger Marshall (R) (inc.)