Massachusetts Senate
99%
Dem
1%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +28.8·80% of simulations: Dem +16.6 to Dem +40.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+25.2 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-1.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+4.9 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.4 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +28.8
Polls
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-20 | Dem +26 | 603 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-20 | Dem +38 | 600 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | Dem +44 | 611 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | Dem +35 | 616 | lv |
| Cygnal Political | 2026-01-25 | Dem +29 | 800 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 99%
R 1%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Democratic state (D+28).
- Candidates
- Ed Markey (D) (inc.) John Deaton (R)