Maine Senate

69%

Dem

31%GOP

Lean D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: Dem +5.7·80% of simulations: GOP +9.2 to Dem +20.7

How We Got This

Partisan lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

+6.9 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

-9.8 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+8.9 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

-0.3 pp

Forecasted margin

Dem +5.7

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Echelon Insights	2026-04-09	Dem +6	378	lv
Echelon Insights	2026-04-09	Dem +2	378	lv
Maine People's Resource Center	2026-03-31	GOP +4	1,167	lv
Maine People's Resource Center	2026-03-31	Dem +10	1,167	lv
Emerson College	2026-03-23	Dem +4	1,075	lv

What Changes the Forecast

We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.

Forecast over time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 69%

R 31%

Context