Michigan's 10th Congressional District
55%
Dem
45%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +1.3·80% of simulations: GOP +13.9 to Dem +16.5
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-4.8 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-3.3 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +1.3
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | GOP +2 | 592 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | GOP +2 | 592 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | Dem +2 | 592 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 55%
R 45%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Eric Chung (D) Robert Lulgjuraj (R)
- Seat Status
- retired to run for governor of Michigan