Minnesota's 1st Congressional District
81%
GOP
20%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +10.3·80% of simulations: GOP +26.2 to Dem +5.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-10.4 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-7.5 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.4 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +10.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-02-03 | GOP +4 | 708 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 20%
R 81%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Jake Johnson (D) Brad Finstad (R) (inc.)