Mississippi Senate
93%
GOP
7%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +16.1·80% of simulations: GOP +30.0 to GOP +2.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-19.4 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-2.5 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+5.3 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.5 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +16.1
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-04-12 | GOP +4 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 7%
R 93%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+22).
- Candidates
- Scott Colom (D) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) (inc.)