New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District
81%
GOP
19%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +11.5·80% of simulations: GOP +28.4 to Dem +5.4
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-9.8 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-9.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.0 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +11.5
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-05-22 | GOP +12 | 505 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 19%
R 81%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Bayly Winder (D) Jeff Van Drew (R) (inc.)