South Carolina Senate
88%
GOP
12%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +13.0·80% of simulations: GOP +27.5 to Dem +1.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-14.9 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-4.3 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+6.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +13.0
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-03-01 | GOP +6 | 700 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-11-22 | GOP +8 | 704 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-11-22 | GOP +3 | 704 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 12%
R 88%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+17).
- Candidates
- Annie Andrews (D) Lindsey Graham (R) (inc.)