South Dakota Senate
98%
GOP
2%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +22.1·80% of simulations: GOP +35.3 to GOP +8.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-26.2 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-0.8 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+4.9 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +22.1
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-02-18 | GOP +21 | 685 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-11-14 | GOP +27 | 814 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 2%
R 98%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+29).
- Candidates
- Julian Beaudion (D) Mike Rounds (R) (inc.)