Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
52%
Dem
48%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +0.5·80% of simulations: GOP +14.3 to Dem +15.2
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-6.2 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-2.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +0.5
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-02-17 | Dem +1 | 500 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-10-15 | Dem +2 | 609 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 52%
R 48%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Rebecca Cooke (D) Derrick Van Orden (R) (inc.)