Arizona's 1st Congressional District
72%
Dem
28%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +7.3·80% of simulations: GOP +9.7 to Dem +24.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-1.8 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-0.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +7.3
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | 2025-11-17 | Dem +4 | 500 | lv |
| GrayHouse | 2025-11-17 | EVEN | 500 | lv |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2025-11-05 | GOP +1 | 676 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 72%
R 28%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+2).
- Candidates
- Jonathan Treble (D) Thomas Feely (R)
- Seat Status
- retired to run for governor of Arizona