Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
74%
GOP
26%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +7.8·80% of simulations: GOP +23.8 to Dem +8.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-8.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-7.1 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.0 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +7.8
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies | 2026-01-12 | GOP +10 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 26%
R 74%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+9).
- Candidates
- Alex Kelloff (D) Jeff Hurd (R) (inc.)