Colorado's 5th Congressional District
69%
GOP
31%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +6.1·80% of simulations: GOP +22.8 to Dem +10.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-8.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.6 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.0 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +6.2
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2025-11-03 | GOP +4 | 450 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 31%
R 69%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+9).
- Candidates
- Jessica Killin (D) Jeff Crank (R) (inc.)