Iowa's 1st Congressional District
52%
Dem
48%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +0.7·80% of simulations: GOP +15.0 to Dem +16.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-6.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-1.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +0.7
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-06-19 | Dem +5 | 555 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-06-19 | GOP +3 | 555 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 52%
R 48%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Christina Bohannan (D) Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) (inc.)