North Carolina's 1st Congressional District
62%
GOP
38%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +3.4·80% of simulations: GOP +18.1 to Dem +11.3
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-9.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-1.9 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+8.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +3.4
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2026-02-02 | Dem +4 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 38%
R 62%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Don Davis (D) (inc.) Laurie Buckhout (R)