North Carolina Senate
66%
Dem
34%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +4.5·80% of simulations: GOP +9.7 to Dem +18.7
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-2.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-3.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+10.0 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.4 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +4.5
Polls
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | 2026-04-06 | Dem +9 | 703 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-04-01 | Dem +5 | 987 | lv |
| Harper Polling | 2026-03-23 | Dem +9 | 600 | lv |
| YouGov | 2026-03-18 | Dem +17 | 872 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-14 | Dem +3 | 556 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 66%
R 34%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State lean
- This is a competitive state that leans slightly Republican (R+3).
- Candidates
- Roy Cooper (D) Michael Whatley (R)
- Seat Status
- retired