New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
94%
Dem
6%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +15.4·80% of simulations: Dem +2.8 to Dem +28.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+4.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+2.1 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.3 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +15.4
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Anselm | 2026-03-18 | Dem +14 | 739 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-01-19 | Dem +15 | 1,094 | lv |
| St. Anselm | 2025-11-19 | Dem +7 | 1,102 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2025-09-23 | Dem +13 | 508 | lv |
| St. Anselm | 2025-08-27 | Dem +23 | 881 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 94%
R 6%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Maggie Goodlander (D) (inc.) Lily Tang Williams (R)