New Hampshire Senate
79%
Dem
21%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +9.0·80% of simulations: GOP +5.8 to Dem +23.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+3.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-4.1 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.3 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +9.0
Polls
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-21 | Dem +16 | 1,115 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-21 | Dem +8 | 1,130 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-23 | Dem +10 | 1,100 | lv |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-23 | Dem +2 | 1,100 | lv |
| St. Anselm | 2026-03-18 | Dem +3 | 1,491 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 79%
R 21%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a competitive state that leans slightly Democratic (D+4).
- Candidates
- Chris Pappas (D) John Sununu (R)
- Seat Status
- retired