New York's 4th Congressional District
89%
Dem
11%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +14.3·80% of simulations: GOP +0.9 to Dem +29.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+4.2 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
+1.5 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.6 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +14.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-02-17 | Dem +6 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 89%
R 11%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Laura Gillen (D) (inc.) Dennis McGrath (R)