New York's 17th Congressional District
76%
Dem
24%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +8.5·80% of simulations: GOP +7.8 to Dem +24.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+2.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-3.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.5 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.3 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +8.5
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-02-17 | Dem +6 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 76%
R 24%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+3).
- Candidates
- Michael Lawler (R) (inc.) Dem: TBD