South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
83%
GOP
17%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +11.4·80% of simulations: GOP +27.3 to Dem +4.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-11.0 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-7.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +11.4
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-12-06 | GOP +4 | 645 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 17%
R 83%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- William Deford (D) Sam McCown (R)
- Seat Status
- retired to run for governor of South Carolina