Virginia's 1st Congressional District
51%
GOP
49%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +0.4·80% of simulations: GOP +16.5 to Dem +15.8
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-4.8 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.1 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +0.3
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-08-09 | EVEN | 541 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-08-09 | GOP +1 | 541 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 49%
R 51%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+5).
- Candidates
- Shannon Taylor (D) Robert Wittman (R) (inc.)