Virginia Senate

96%

Dem

4%GOP

Solid D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: Dem +18.9·80% of simulations: Dem +5.8 to Dem +31.9

How We Got This

Partisan lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

+6.3 pp

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

+3.5 pp

National Environment

current political climate

+9.1 pp

Polls

recent state and district polling

+0.0 pp

Forecasted margin

Dem +18.9

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Responsive Management	2025-01-15	Dem +8	806	a

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast over time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 96%

R 4%

Context