California's 22nd Congressional District
52%
Dem
48%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +0.6·80% of simulations: GOP +15.1 to Dem +16.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+2.7 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-11.5 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.5 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.1 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +0.6
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-08-08 | EVEN | 547 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-08-08 | Dem +2 | 547 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 52%
R 48%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+3).
- Candidates
- Randy Villegas (D) David Valadao (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary