California's 48th Congressional District
79%
Dem
21%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +10.4·80% of simulations: GOP +6.5 to Dem +27.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+4.1 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-2.7 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +10.4
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | 2025-10-26 | Dem +4 | 517 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 79%
R 21%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Brandon Riker (D) Jim Desmond (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat Status
- retired