California's 40th Congressional District
82%
GOP
18%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +11.0·80% of simulations: GOP +27.0 to Dem +5.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-10.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-8.2 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.4 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.3 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +11.0
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 2026-01-19 | GOP +1 | 800 | lv |
| Tulchin Research | 2026-01-19 | EVEN | 800 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 18%
R 82%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Esther Kim Varet (D) Young Kim (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary