Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
55%
GOP
45%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +1.5·80% of simulations: GOP +17.1 to Dem +14.0
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
+1.3 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-12.1 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+10.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
-0.9 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +1.5
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-03-22 | GOP +7 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-10-11 | EVEN | 585 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 45%
R 55%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (D+1).
- Candidates
- Robert Harvie (D) Brian Fitzpatrick (R) (inc.)