Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
51%
Dem
49%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Dem +0.4·80% of simulations: GOP +15.4 to Dem +16.2
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-6.4 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-2.3 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
Dem +0.4
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-11-19 | Dem +4 | 549 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-07-11 | Dem +3 | 559 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 51%
R 49%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Janelle Stelson (D) Scott Perry (R) (inc.)