Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
56%
GOP
44%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +1.8·80% of simulations: GOP +17.6 to Dem +14.0
How We Got This
Partisan lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-6.5 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-4.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+9.1 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +1.8
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-08-28 | Dem +2 | 615 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast over time
Forecast over time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 44%
R 56%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Paige Cognetti (D) Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) (inc.)