Texas's 15th Congressional District
83%
GOP
17%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +11.3·80% of simulations: GOP +26.6 to Dem +4.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-13.0 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-4.9 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+6.6 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +11.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2025-09-11 | GOP +4 | 533 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 17%
R 83%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+14).
- Candidates
- Bobby Pulido (D) Monica De La Cruz (R) (inc.)