Texas's 23rd Congressional District
81%
GOP
19%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +9.9·80% of simulations: GOP +24.4 to Dem +4.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-12.0 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.0 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+6.9 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+0.2 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +9.9
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-11 | GOP +2 | 521 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-11 | GOP +2 | 521 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 19%
R 81%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Katy Padilla Stout (D) Brandon Herrera (R)