Texas Senate
76%
GOP
24%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: GOP +7.8·80% of simulations: GOP +22.1 to Dem +6.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
-10.6 pp
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
-5.4 pp
National Environment
current political climate
+7.2 pp
Polls
recent state and district polling
+1.0 pp
Forecasted margin
GOP +7.8
Polls
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-04-20 | Dem +6 | 1,018 | lv |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-04-20 | Dem +4 | 1,018 | lv |
| Impact Research | 2026-03-17 | Dem +1 | 900 | lv |
| Impact Research | 2026-03-17 | Dem +2 | 900 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-05 | Dem +2 | 576 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 24%
R 76%
Context
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- James Talarico (D) John Cornyn (R) (inc.)