Missouri's 2nd Congressional District
70%
GOP
30%Dem
▲ D +24% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +7.2·80% of simulations: R +26.0 to D +11.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +7.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 30%
GOP 70%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+8 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Frederick Wellman
Republican Ann Wagner (inc.)