Missouri's 3rd Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
▲ R +6% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +21.4·80% of simulations: R +33.5 to R +9.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +24.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +21.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+27 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Bethany Mann
Republican Robert Onder (inc.)