Connecticut Governor
100%
Dem
0%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +20.6·80% of simulations: D +12.2 to D +29.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +13.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.6
Forecasted margin
D +20.6
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | D +17 | 540 | lv |
| co/efficient | Sep 17, 2026 | D +7 | 979 | lv |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 14, 2026 | D +17 | 1,288 | lv |
| GreatBlue Research | Sep 8, 2026 | D +16 | 1,000 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24, 2026 | D +15 | 803 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+16 This state leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ned Lamont (inc.)
Republican Ryan Fazio