Massachusetts Governor

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +29.4·80% of simulations: D +20.9 to D +37.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the state votes compared with the nation

D +23.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +1.2

National Environment

current political climate

D +4.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.5

Forecasted margin

D +29.4

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
MassINC Polling Group	Sep 22, 2026	D +22	800	lv
University of New Hampshire	Sep 21, 2026	D +16	557	lv
University of New Hampshire	Aug 24, 2026	D +24	884	lv
YouGov	Aug 12, 2026	D +20	800	rv
University of New Hampshire	Jun 23, 2026	D +19	608	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details

State lean

D+28 This is a safe Democrat state.

Candidates

Democrat Maura Healey (inc.)

Republican Mike Minogue