Vermont's At-Large Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +35.3·80% of simulations: D +28.7 to D +41.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +31.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +3.6
Forecasted margin
D +35.3
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braun Research | Sep 21, 2026 | D +17 | 732 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | D +36 | 830 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20, 2026 | D +38 | 949 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +31 | 872 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+34 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Becca Balint (inc.)
Republican Gerald Malloy