Vermont Governor
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.1·80% of simulations: R +26.6 to R +9.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +27.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +72.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +22.5
Forecasted margin
R +18.1
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | Oct 4, 2026 | R +3 | 948 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | D +6 | 829 | lv |
| Braun Research | Sep 21, 2026 | R +9 | 732 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20, 2026 | R +11 | 925 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | R +15 | 867 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+34 This is a safe Democrat state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Amanda Janoo
Republican Phil Scott (inc.)
- Notes
- Majority required.