Washington's 3rd Congressional District
74%
Dem
26%GOP
▲ R +5% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.0·80% of simulations: R +5.7 to D +15.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +3.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +13.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.8
Forecasted margin
D +5.0
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | Sep 27, 2026 | R +1 | 543 | lv |
| Emerson College | Jul 10, 2026 | R +1 | 500 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | R +7 | 982 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 74%
GOP 26%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+4 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (inc.)
Republican John Braun
- Notes
- Top-two primary