Washington's 4th Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.4·80% of simulations: R +34.0 to R +0.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +17.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat John Duresky
Republican Amanda McKinney
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.