Washington's 5th Congressional District
97%
GOP
3%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.5·80% of simulations: R +26.4 to R +6.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +17.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +16.5
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 25, 2026 | R +6 | 578 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Carmela Conroy
Republican Michael Baumgartner (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary